Assessing the Impact of Conflict on Development in North-east Nigeria

Jun 23, 2021


While considerable work has gone into understanding the developmental impact of conflict in the region and elsewhere, this research takes a dynamic and integrated approach to assessing the interacting effects of the conflict and quantifying the future impact of continued insecurity in the region. 

The report uses the International Futures (IFs) model, a systems dynamic integrated assessment tool, to compare two scenarios: a Conflict scenario that simulates conflict and its effects based on the best data and literature available, and a No Conflict scenario that simulates development in a counterfactual without conflict. By comparing these two scenarios, the report evaluates the conflict’s direct and indirect effects. 

This report, commissioned by the UNDP in partnership with the Federal Government of Nigeria, is part of the UN’s work on conflict prevention, peacebuilding and responsive institutions anchored in the UN Secretary-General’s commitment to building peaceful and resilient societies. The objective of this report is to become a useful resource for understanding and working around conflict to foster the process of stabilization, peacebuilding and recovery in the region

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